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ysabetwordsmith, a post from Norman Spinrad explaining the publishing death spiral.
Here's the nutshell, in Norman's own words:
Read the whole post, though, since it's entertaining and does a vastly better job of explaining his reasoning as to why so many writers have to resort to pseudonyms after three or four books...
What do you think? Is the American model of publishing broken?
ysabetwordsmith, a post from Norman Spinrad explaining the publishing death spiral.Here's the nutshell, in Norman's own words:
Let’s say that some chain has ordered 10,000 copies of a novel, sold 8000 copies, and returned 2000, a really excellent sell-through of 80%. So they order to net on the author’s next novel, meaning 8000 copies. And let’s even say they still have an 80% sell-through of 6400 books, so they order 6400 copies of the next book, and sell 5120....
You see where this mathematical regression is going, don’t you? Sooner or later right down the willy-hole to an unpublishablity that has nothing at all to do with the literary quality of a writer’s work, or the loyalty of a reasonable body of would-be readers, or even the passionate support of an editor below the very top of the corporate pyramid.
Read the whole post, though, since it's entertaining and does a vastly better job of explaining his reasoning as to why so many writers have to resort to pseudonyms after three or four books...
What do you think? Is the American model of publishing broken?
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If 8,000 people bought the first book, how is the fact that the chain only bought 8,000 of the second book going to stop those 8,000 people from buying the 8,000 copies if they liked the book? Unless the bookstore automatically returns the last 20% of the books without trying to sell them, that doesn't make sense to me. Sure, if the chain has enough stores, some of those copies might end up at stores that aren't the stores the potential buyers are looking in, but if the chain sells so many that they don't have copies to put on the shelves, aren't they going to order more rather than sending some back?
The problem I see is that the chain store that I shop at never bothers putting any copies of many of the books I want on the shelf. Their SF section has many shelves of Charlaine Harris books, and several shelves of Star Wars and Star Trek tie-in novels, but not a single book from many of the authors I like. I have nothing against Charlaine Harris or Star Wars. Total failure of books to appear on the shelves causes people to not know they exist, which has to affect sales for most authors.
From:
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You need more books in the brick-and-mortar stores than potential readers -- because otherwise the browsers never find you, as you point out in the second paragraph. It's different with the online purveyors: there, all you need is a page on the book and at least one copy in the warehouse.
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Several years ago, I had an interesting conversation with one of the employees of a now defunct local Waldenbooks store. She said that her store's policy was to order half as many books as they'd initially sold when they ran out of copies of a book. It they'd ordered and sold twenty copies, they'd replace them with ten copies. If they'd only bought and sold two, then those two would be replaced with one and that one wouldn't be replaced at all when it sold.
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Yes. They're not going to print 50,000 copies of a book with 5,000 pre-orders. Paper is expensive.
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Print on demand is the end state here, and it's not more than a few year away for trade paperbacks.
B
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Kind of a sucky bookstore experience.
B
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Hardcovers will be only for libraries and collectors (which is pretty much the case now anyway.)
Combine this with a coffee shop atmosphere (which some bookstores are already doing) and perhaps 'extra' enticements like readings, interviews, writing groups, etc. and it wouldn't have to be a 'sucky' experience. But certainly a different one than the current model.
Even with this model, though, you still have the 'visibility' issue. With no reason for a book to go OP, the shelves become more and more packed... so the bookstores themselves would start pulling the 'old' books that are selling one or two copies a quarter in favor of those selling more. But: you should be able to walk into the bookstore and order one of those 'old' books as long as you know author and title -- or you could find an author you like and order every one of his/her back titles.
I suspect that if brick-and-mortar bookstores are going to survive, they're heading for something along those lines -- or toward something entirely different I can't foresee that works better.
But I doubt that they'll survive in their current form. Someone who actually runs a bookstore and knows the economics would be better able to predict how the bottom line changes once there's no more strip-and-return policy as with the current distribution model.
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Think about this more generally. Forget the shelves -- choice becomes more and more. Instead of having to compete with the books now in print, you're going to have to compete with every book ever written.
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Nonprofit scholarly publishers don't have the same problem. My current employer typically aims at three years' worth of stock on reprints, or on four-color books (the most expensive in terms of makeready costs). We use POD for things that move fewer than 50 copies/year.
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Yes, yes, and yes.
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Most stores put out a number relative to what they think will sell; many copies of a bestseller's book, and fewer of a new author's. But usually they put out at least three copies of something new. (I'm talking chain stores here; indies may have different concerns.)
Paperbacks have a standard flow: X copies on display until they either sell out or 3 months have passed, whichever comes first. Any leftovers get stripped and claim credit from the publisher.
Most of the chain stores have central ordering, with limited options for a local manager to order what is hot in her particular store/region. If one B&N gets three copies of Great New Book, then all B&Ns will get three copies (or some proportionate number relative to their size) of Great New Book.
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They also don't seem to get the same items as the the store an hour east of me. That store has a much better selection and I know I'm not the only one who thinks so.
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Bookstore managers of my acquaintance have confessed to manipulating the ordering chain. And backlist is generally up to the local manager.