What I expect now...

[sleigh]

The news mongers want news. They want conflict and excitement and drama. There's no conflict, excitement, or drama in "by all indications, the election's pretty much over and Obama's going to win in a walk." You even have Real Clear Politics (not exactly a liberal site) saying that Obama currently has enough electoral votes locked up to win (286, by their numbers). Yet until yesterday, CNN's count still had Obama under 270 (they now have him at 277); MSNBC's electoral map has Obama still at 264. Even that liberal bastion, the paper that makes right wingers froth at the mouth, the NY Times, has Obama at 264.

There's no liberal bias. There's a bias against elections that aren't close and therefore newsworthy.

So what I expect to hear now from all the media outlets is variations on "McCain is making up ground and things are tightening up! This is gonna be a close one! A nailbiter! Sturm und drang!" I saw it starting today on MSNBC, with two of the talking heads saying that -- despite the fact that every single instant poll on the debate indicated that Obama was the clear winner and did the best job of swaying undecided voters -- "I think McCain won this one and the polls are wrong. I see McCain making this race much tighter on the next few weeks." They followed that up with a panel of six undecided voters, three of whom said they were now going to vote for McCain. "See!" the talking heads exclaimed. "There! That proves it."

Expect it. And because they're also talking about it all the time, it may turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Comments

[barbarienne.livejournal.com]

It may turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Or it may the excuse that makes an election stolen by chicanery look possiblyslightlyperhaps real. [/paranoia]

What I don't want is for people to say, "Oh, Obama has it sewn up. I don't need to get out and vote for him." I want people to be pissing their pants that somehow, someway, McCain might win, and therefore they need to get their asses to the polls and vote against him. Truman won somehow, didn't he?

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

You're right that the danger in an election that doesn't appear close may be that people will sit on their hands and not vote, and thus change the outcome. And there's still the possibility of some Bradley effect causing the polls not to reflect the reality (though I'm dubious about that...).

But yes, everyone still needs to get out and vote!

[smofbabe.livejournal.com]

And there's still the possibility of some Bradley effect causing the polls not to reflect the reality (though I'm dubious about that...).

Saw an interesting article that posited that the Bradley effect if it exists at all would be muted this time around because people could cloak it by claiming to be disturbed by Obama's Rev Wright connection.

[maiac.livejournal.com]

I heard people on MSNBC last night talking about how the polls "tighten up" just before the election, so it might still be interesting to repor-- I mean, a close election.

I worry that they'll find a way to tighten up the polls so it won't be so obvious when they reverse the results in crucial precincts.

[rmeidaking.livejournal.com]

Don't you love it when guys who were citing polls six weeks ago are now proclaiming that you can't trust polls?

[the-corbie.livejournal.com]

You're right, but I don't think such a narrative will actually be credible. As the election approaches, McCain simply looks (and I never thought I'd be saying this) out of his depth. It's a lot easier to look relaxed and to cope with the stress when you're winning, I know, but even so: for the media to present the race as 'close', McCain has to look and behave like a potential President. And he hasn't been doing so for weeks, now.

[barondave.livejournal.com]

Too many on the right -- and too many in the conservative news media -- don't let reality affect their views. Some of it is selling ad apace, and close races are always good for ratings. Some of it is decades of hate radio and constant drumming of the extremist viewpoint. And some is that you know Republicans are going to lie and cheat in the actual election.

As minnehaha B says, it's not enough for the Democrats to get the most votes, they have to beat the spread.

Fortunately, Obama is ahead by far enough that I think he'll win by at least 10 points. The question remains about a filibuster-proof Senate and an overwhelming House. We'll see.

[rawdon.livejournal.com]

You'd think that the likelihood that Obama will be the nation's first black President would be enough to fill newspaper columns from now until inauguration day.

[davidbcoe.livejournal.com]

I wrote much the same thing about a changing media narrative on my blog yesterday. I think actually that McCain's performance last night made that narrative more difficult (thought Matt Drudge is doing his best to make it happen). Every report I've seen and heard, including several focus groups, have shown Obama winning handily and winning over undecided voters. But I totally agree that the "McCain Comeback Story" is one that the media is itching to tell.

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I read your post after I'd written mine -- great minds and all, eh?

We'll see what happens....

[spenceraloysius.livejournal.com]

They are already saying that Obama is losing his lead in the polls. It will be depressing if the media gets to decide the election because they wanted to have some fun.

[carolf.livejournal.com]

Even that liberal bastion, the paper that makes right wingers froth at the mouth, the NY Times

*sigh* I miss William F. Buckley, Jr. I miss the day when "elite" was something to aspire to, and celebrities actually did something.

When I start to fear a McCain comeback, I think of:

Christopher Buckley supporting Obama, and fired from NR. (!)
David Brooks endorsing Obama (!)

As for the Bradley effect ...

Here in Michigan, there is a great deal of fear that Dems and others supporting Obama will stay home, particularly if it's a cold, rainy day. (Cold? Rain? In Michigan? In November? Nah!)
That, together with the whole Kilpatrick scandal and McCain's campaign withdrawal makes this a tricky election for Detroit, in terms of big Dem turnout. And as with Chicago/Illinois, as Detroit votes, so votes Michigan.

But, one wise commentator around here (Jack Lessenberry) pointed out that in Detroit, especially, there is liable to be a reverse Bradley effect. Kilpatrick will be in jail on Nov 4, and old news. There are an awful lot of eligible voters who lived the Jim Crow South experience, and not just a few who can remember seeing lynchings with their own eyes. These folks are chomping at the bit to get the polls and vote for Obama.

No, I'm not complacent. I thought Gore had it locked, too. But I am hopeful.

With