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Today, for the first time since the campaign began in earnest, Obama has fallen behind McCain in the electoral vote polls. Yes, there's still seven weeks to the election. Maybe this is an aberration, a legacy of a huge bounce from the Republican convention, and we'll see Obama's numbers climb back up to where they had been.
Or maybe this will be the day where we say "Here we go again..." Here's where the Rovian tactics prove their effectiveness once again. I don't know which, but I'm feeling pessimistic today.
Maybe it's the rain.
Folks, Steve is going to go all speculative on you today. Wildly so. Let's play with the concept of a McCain/Palin win in November and wonder what a possible future might look like. Got that tinfoil fedora? Good. You're gonna need it.
With McCain in the White House, he finds himself immediately at odds with the Democratic congress. As a result, nothing much gets done at all. Congress digs in their collective heels and refuses to work with the new President -- this has several effects. The economy continues to spiral into the toilet. The gap between rich and poor continues to widen. Our trade deficit gets larger; the budget deficit grows larger. But all this is blamed not on the popular McCain and the even more-popular Palin, but on Congress. McCain's popularity figures aren't that high (since nearly half the electorate doesn't like him), but Congress' are completely in the toilet. In 2010, that results in the Republicans snatching back control of the Senate and severely lowering the majority in the House. Two Supreme Court justices retire; they're replaced by staunch conservatives. Roe v. Wade is overturned, and the cases that come up to redress the rights-grabs the Bush administration made are either declined to be heard, or the decisions are in favor of executive privilege.
WIth McCain in the White House, the world has perceived this as "more of the same" from the USA, and our already-low international status (after 8 years of the Bush regime) continues to deteriorate. The EU distances itself from us because it doesn't want to be perceived as our lackey. We get involved in increasingly-belligerent relations with Iran, with Russia, with Arab countries, with North Korea, with China. Some of those turn into actual firefights. The Middle East is ready to explode. There is a sense of impending war everywhere. With the USA being increasingly perceived as the "Bully of the World," China's influence climbs yet higher. The EU, Africa, South America, the rest of Asia -- they all cozy up to the rising new world power. And there's Russia, which is increasingly a player again in international politics. This is not the Cold War; this is a rather warm one... which means that cries of "military preparedness" and "security" are loud and heavy in the USA. The Department of Homeland Security is the most powerful entity within the government; there are cries against the continued erosion of citizen rights, but they are small and faint and no one dares do anything about it for fear of reprisal.
In 2012, McCain declines to run because of health. Palin runs against Hillary, but Hillary is an old Congressional hack, painted with the tar brush of loathing that the public has for Congress. Palin wins in a romp, and the electorate also gives her a Republican majority in both houses of Congress. Her presidency makes the Bush/Cheney duo look timid. By 2016, the imbalance of power between the executive, judicial, and legislative branches has reached epic proportions, and Palin is pushing a staunchly and openly religious conservative agenda. Both Congress and the courts pretend that they're still relevant, but they're not. The bulk of power rests with the president...
********
Enough. That's not a future I care to see -- and given my record as a prognosticator, I hope I won't. And I'm sure, in fairness, that someone on the opposite political side of the fence might devise what is to them an equally harrowing future if Obama is elected. In fact, I saw one such prediction in the comment field at one of the conservative pro-Palin sites I browsed: "barack obama is a socialite and is running for president to be the black race president.if hes elected you wil have to say ‘yes,sir’ and “NO sir” to ALL blacks cause it is their time-yes,we can, walk to close and you’ll get cursed and they say -”it;s out time,honkey, get outta the way!you will see most government programs go to blacks and 840 billion to africa that has a terrorist leader that burned, looted. killed and forced people to vote for him at gunpoint.and other countries.everything will eventually be gov’t controled under him!"
Maybe it's the rain.
Or maybe this will be the day where we say "Here we go again..." Here's where the Rovian tactics prove their effectiveness once again. I don't know which, but I'm feeling pessimistic today.
Maybe it's the rain.
Folks, Steve is going to go all speculative on you today. Wildly so. Let's play with the concept of a McCain/Palin win in November and wonder what a possible future might look like. Got that tinfoil fedora? Good. You're gonna need it.
With McCain in the White House, he finds himself immediately at odds with the Democratic congress. As a result, nothing much gets done at all. Congress digs in their collective heels and refuses to work with the new President -- this has several effects. The economy continues to spiral into the toilet. The gap between rich and poor continues to widen. Our trade deficit gets larger; the budget deficit grows larger. But all this is blamed not on the popular McCain and the even more-popular Palin, but on Congress. McCain's popularity figures aren't that high (since nearly half the electorate doesn't like him), but Congress' are completely in the toilet. In 2010, that results in the Republicans snatching back control of the Senate and severely lowering the majority in the House. Two Supreme Court justices retire; they're replaced by staunch conservatives. Roe v. Wade is overturned, and the cases that come up to redress the rights-grabs the Bush administration made are either declined to be heard, or the decisions are in favor of executive privilege.
WIth McCain in the White House, the world has perceived this as "more of the same" from the USA, and our already-low international status (after 8 years of the Bush regime) continues to deteriorate. The EU distances itself from us because it doesn't want to be perceived as our lackey. We get involved in increasingly-belligerent relations with Iran, with Russia, with Arab countries, with North Korea, with China. Some of those turn into actual firefights. The Middle East is ready to explode. There is a sense of impending war everywhere. With the USA being increasingly perceived as the "Bully of the World," China's influence climbs yet higher. The EU, Africa, South America, the rest of Asia -- they all cozy up to the rising new world power. And there's Russia, which is increasingly a player again in international politics. This is not the Cold War; this is a rather warm one... which means that cries of "military preparedness" and "security" are loud and heavy in the USA. The Department of Homeland Security is the most powerful entity within the government; there are cries against the continued erosion of citizen rights, but they are small and faint and no one dares do anything about it for fear of reprisal.
In 2012, McCain declines to run because of health. Palin runs against Hillary, but Hillary is an old Congressional hack, painted with the tar brush of loathing that the public has for Congress. Palin wins in a romp, and the electorate also gives her a Republican majority in both houses of Congress. Her presidency makes the Bush/Cheney duo look timid. By 2016, the imbalance of power between the executive, judicial, and legislative branches has reached epic proportions, and Palin is pushing a staunchly and openly religious conservative agenda. Both Congress and the courts pretend that they're still relevant, but they're not. The bulk of power rests with the president...
********
Enough. That's not a future I care to see -- and given my record as a prognosticator, I hope I won't. And I'm sure, in fairness, that someone on the opposite political side of the fence might devise what is to them an equally harrowing future if Obama is elected. In fact, I saw one such prediction in the comment field at one of the conservative pro-Palin sites I browsed: "barack obama is a socialite and is running for president to be the black race president.if hes elected you wil have to say ‘yes,sir’ and “NO sir” to ALL blacks cause it is their time-yes,we can, walk to close and you’ll get cursed and they say -”it;s out time,honkey, get outta the way!you will see most government programs go to blacks and 840 billion to africa that has a terrorist leader that burned, looted. killed and forced people to vote for him at gunpoint.and other countries.everything will eventually be gov’t controled under him!"
Maybe it's the rain.
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I haven't seen this much idiocy since OJ Simpson single-handedly made the Ford Bronco the most popular vehicle in America.
There are Sarah Palin action figures.
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best/worse cases
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But Congress, I believe, loses in that scenario: the administration (and the Republicans wanting to get elected to Congress) will be howling about the "Do-Nothing Congress!" There will be no such outrage against the administration; McCain/Palin will get some of the blame, but not much -- just as right now, it seems that many people are willing to accept that a different set of Republicans in the White House = Change rather than simply a continuation of the basic policies and agendas.
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Makes me want to head for the booze in the back of the pantry.
Either that, or I'm heading for the barricades. (unfortunately, probably a "detention camp" first).
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I'm an optimist. Unless something untoward happens (I'm not that much of an optimist), Obama's strengths will vastly outweigh McCain's weaknesses.
Also, polling in this country freaked out after correctly predicting elections in 2000, 2002 and 2004 but then didn't match the "official" count. This year, they're missing the large number of people energized by Obama and Hillary Clinton.
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Maybe it's not time to head for the booze.. yet
For the first time since 1980, I'm
1. Volunteering for a political candidate.. Obama
2. Putting some $$ into the Obama campaign coffers
3. Putting signs/bumperstickers on my home and vehicles.
4. will be phonebanking in the next few weeks.
Illinois is a pretty 'safe' state as regards it's electoral votes for Obama. I may be going to other states to help register, etc.
Yes, I'm worried.
We may never go as far as the US did in "If This Goes On--" but, I don't know.
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Re: Maybe it's not time to head for the booze.. yet
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I also think it's worth mentioning that two things don't show up in any polling: 1) new voter registration, particular the registration of young voters who (this is key) have cell phones but no land lines. And 2) the Obama ground organization, which is unprecedented and could result in an enormous get-out-the-vote campaign. The Repugs can mock community organizers all they want. But who would you want running your GOTV effort?
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Ho! Ho! Ho!
Democrats grow spines? It ain't never gonna happen except in an alternate universe!
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A.
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Thoughts
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Rough and uncouth, to say the least, I agree. (Although he does accurately describe Robert Mugabe -- "a terrorist leader that burned, looted. killed and forced people to vote for him at gunpoint" -- which is far more than the UN has been able to do.) But disordered thought is everywhere, and you'll find just as much of this kind of hate and stupidity on the left as on the right. I left a comment there which will, I trust, harsh "texasranger"'s mellow. Go thou and do likewise on your side.
(BTW, there's a pro-Obama comment at the same site stating he taught 12 years of ConLaw at Harvard. Hmmm. I'm guessing the commute costs from his Illinois residence, where he lived while teaching ConLaw at UChicago, must have been substantial...)
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Evidence suggests that exactly the opposite will happen. The Democratic leadership in Congress will sigh a huge sigh of relief that they don't have to work with some guy from their side telling them what they can and should be doing. Our relationships with foreign powers will go to hell, and Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid can sit back and say, "Interactions with foreign powers isn't our responsibilty." Meanwhile, they'll continue to work around the edges, passing meaningless domestic spending bills and claiming that they're doing their jobs.
They're playing an extremely slow-motion game of chicken with the Republicans, and the goal for both is to wreck the country. Both sides someday know they'll leave the country in ruins, but if they play their cards right, it'll be their ruins, not the other guys'.
I don't think the Dems really want Obama to win. He, unlike they, really wants to accomplish something.