The Speech

[sleigh]

I just watched Sarah Palin's speech.

I think if anyone is dismissing her as a lightweight and a pushover, they are sadly mistaken. This could be very interesting.

Comments

[chamois-shimi.livejournal.com]

The McCain campaign folks wrote her speech - they had to re-write it because they weren't expecting the pick they got, and the original was too masculine. She took the speech and altered it some, adding in stuff of her own, but I'd rather hear *her* words, all her own, before figuring out how much of it is good speech-writing, and how much good speech-reading. :P

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

I saw that same report on dailyos too.

K.

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

It doesn't matter that they had to rewrite the speech. What matters is her delivery of it and the effectiveness. I thought she delivered it very well, and it was very effective for the audience for which it was intended.

And that's not good news.

Palin's Speech

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

A differing opinion (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/cognitive-dissonance.html).

B

Re: Palin's Speech

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

I'd agree that Palin's not going to change a committed voters mind; she certainly won't change mine (in fact, her viciousness and mockery of her opponent has quite the opposite effect). But I think she might go a long way toward swaying "on-the-fence" voters, the white working class vote, and even some feminists because of her charisma and strength (if they can hold their noses long enough at the smell of her far right religious views).

Given a lack of some scandal cropping up in her past, or "Troopergate" getting big legs, or some incredible gaffe when she's finally speaking off the script (all of which are certainly possibilities), I think she will tighten up this election to an alarming (for me) extent.

I really hope I'm wrong, though. :-)

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

I really don't think it matters much that someone else wrote the majority of the speech. All the politicos have speechwriters. McCain doesn't write all his speeches; Obama doesn't either (http://www.newsweek.com/id/84756). What's important is the delivery and the ability to own the words -- and her delivery was both excellent and effective, which I think is bad news for the Democrats.

I also think we had a glimpse of how she'll handle herself in less scripted situations. She was obviously ad-libbing a few times (the line about "What's the difference between hockey moms and pitbulls? Lipstick" was one), and she was comfortable and at ease doing so.

[chamois-shimi.livejournal.com]

Sure, and some people will be swayed by sheer charisma and makeup, because they're silly. But this wasn't someone who knew Palin writing a speech for her, this was McCain's folks writing her speech, and they hardly know her. Maybe later on we'll get a better feel for her, herself, beyond the smilies and the hockey mom schtick, but I'm not counting on it.

[daedala.livejournal.com]

I do not want it to be interesting. :(

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

Nor do I. But I'm thinking it will be.

[daedala.livejournal.com]

Part of the reason she scares me is that I grew up there, and I know the narrative they'll be relying on with her, and I think it will work really well. As long as you don't think about it -- Alaska is just weird, and I'm not sure there's anywhere else in the U.S. where blue-collar workers can easily make six figures even adjusting for cost of living. Still. A lot of the attacks on her play really well into the "liberal elite" stuff about how Dems are outright contemptuous of working class voters. I think this article (http://www.slate.com/id/2199118/) is pretty good.

"When people think, we win." A lot of the attacks going on right now do not seem to be to be aimed at making people think.

[spenceraloysius.livejournal.com]

I heard Sarah Palin described as a pitbull. I think the campaign is going to get really ugly as she heads out to attack Barak Obama and Joe Biden. I'm sure we are going to see all new levels of ugly personal attacks.

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

I'd agree. The typical role of the VP candidate is "attack dog" and I think Palin is going to fit the role like a glove.

And the fact that she's a woman means that when Biden gets to debate her, he's going to need to walk a fine line: he can't be too vicious or the perception will be that he's being mean to the nice lady, and he can't be too dismissive, or the perception will be he's being condescending to the woman. That's going to be a tough balancing act.

[smofbabe.livejournal.com]

Certainly the biographical stuff was personal, but a large part of it didn't sound to me like most of it was really from her. I'd like to see the numbers but I think she spent more time praising McCain than making the case for herself. We now see precisely the angle they're going to use against her lack of experience: that the "Washington elite" is out to get her because she's a solid, working-class soccer mom who's not one of them.

I have no doubt that she's going to pick up much of the white, working-class vote that Obama has struggled to attract. OTOH, I don't think there was anything in that speech that's necessarily going to attract borderline feminist voters.

And it might just be me, but although he might have picked her, McCain's body language is really uncomfortable around her.

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

If she does pick up the white, working-class vote, then suddenly a lot of the borderline states are in play again, and we're in a nail-biter of an election...

McCain's body language: Actually, I noticed that also -- though I don't know if it's coming from McCain or Palin or both. When he goes to hug her or put his arm around her, she visibly leans away and doesn't return the gesture but only endures it. And McCain seems to approach her almost gingerly, as if he's afraid she's going to slap him. Very strange -- they really don't look comfortable together.

[barondave.livejournal.com]

Political Rule of Thumb: The first person to invoke Harry Truman loses the election. At minimum, they know they're waaaaay behind. It's far worse when a Republican does it than when a Democrat does it.

I stopped watching when Palin invoked Truman, conveniently leaving out his experience as a senator...

See coverage of the RNC on my LJ. I interviewed a lot of people who are gung-ho about the choice. The GOP base is small and, I suspect, shrinking.

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

Well, I can hope you're right about the Truman Law. :-) But personally I thought it was a barn-burner of a speech for the intended audience, and really fired up that base. I think she might fire up some of those who had drifted away and bring them back.

[scbutler.livejournal.com]

The speech was the easy part. She was preaching to the choir. I think a lot of people are going to be more turned off by her pugnacity than enthralled by it.

The best thing to do with a mad dog that can't bite you is to ignore it.

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

I do hope you're right and her viciousness turns off everyone but the base who wants it. But the Veep candidate's role is usually to be the pug dog in the fight; it appears she relishes the role.

[scbutler.livejournal.com]

There are some interesting early poll results here.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/margie-omero/

I have no idea who Margie Omero is, though I'm guessing she's a Democrat.

[jrittenhouse.livejournal.com]

She's a better speaker than McCain, but that's not saying much.

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

McCain is a mediocre speaker. He hesitates, he steps on his best lines, and when he gets a response he likes he flashes a frozen grin to the audience. I don't expect his speech tonight to have the fire that Palin's had.

[scbutler.livejournal.com]

Not much at all.

[elialshadowpine]

Palin is many things, but a lightweight and a pushover is certainly not one of them.

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

Nope, she's not. I absolutely, positively don't want her in the White House. Her value-set is far too set in the religious right's agenda for me.

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

Oops. (http://www.americablog.com/2008/09/must-see-tv-gop-consultants-on.html)

B

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

I saw that yesterday; someone had also linked to it. However, remember that the 'live mic' commentary took place a few days before Palin's speech. I think her performance last night may have gone a long way toward appeasing their doubts.

[cfgwebgeek.livejournal.com]

According to Noonan, the truncated clip eliminates much of the context provided by the preceding on-air segment. (I wouldn't know. I wouldn't watch MSNBC even for the intense pride and pleasure I'd derive from being called out by Keith Olbermann as the Worst Person in the World.) That aside, though, it had to have been leaked by someone at MSNBC. So much for journalistic confidentiality -- or even fair play with your contractees. Since there seems to be little or no outrage within the working media, does this mean we'll be seeing a whole new "witnessorial" paradigm the next time a reporter is subpoena'd?

Palin, McCain

[markiv1111.livejournal.com]

I have really nothing to add, but I want to point out to people that it is very, very good for me (and possibly other more-or-less lurkers) to see people whose opinions are similar to mine, but better formed and thus more suitable to clear writing, discussing what is happening in this election rationally. I am so frightened of a McCain-Palin administration that I have been physically ill lately fretting about it. It is not your job ("you" including people who are my friends, people I scarcely know, and people who know sleigh but not me) to make me feel better. It is not your job to convince me that McCain-Palin cannot win, and therefore I have nothing to worry about (a reassuring position, but one that is not yet convincing). You don't have any job at all that involves me. Still, your sane and confident writings are doing good things for me, and although it will not change the course of this election, the discourse is hardly irrelevant. Please keep up the good work.

Nate

[madtruk.livejournal.com]

I'm soooo tired of being rational...

To borrow a line from Randy Rhodes...

She's a lying sack of crap.

Catch me after the convention when I can stand the process again.