Statistical Tie

[sleigh]

Watched the debate and here's my opinion:

No one threw a knockout punch. No one gave us an embarrassing gaffe. No one 'won.' If you came in thinking that McCain is your man, you were proud that McCain managed to keep Obama on the defensive for most of the debate and reframed the economic portion of the debate as being about "earmarks" rather than being about the actual economy -- and Obama let him do it. If you're an Obama supporter, you were pleased that Obama came across as calm, knowledgeable, and presidential, while McCain increasingly resembled like your grumpy Uncle Fred, who is condescending and refuses to even look at you. McCain gave us the only emotional moments when he talked about the soldiers asking him to allow them to 'win' while Obama appeared ineffective at tying issues to the people they affect. On the other hand, Obama gave us a far, far better idea of the specifics of what he would do as president while McCain gave us only vague, blustery fluff.

No one won. No one changed any minds, and I doubt that the "undecided" voters out there learned enough to convince them one way or the other.

That's my feeling. What's yours?

EDITED TO ADD: After I wrote this, I went to electoral-vote.com and found this: "CBS ran a poll immediately after the debate and found that among undecided voters, 39% thought Obama won vs. 24% who thought McCain won. In addition, 46% of the uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better and only 8% said their opinion got worse. For McCain, 32% said they now thought more of him but 21% thought worse of him after the debate. Many observers have said this election is about Barack Obama. There is no doubt the country agrees with him on almost every policy issue. The key question is do people think he is up to the toughest job in the world. In terms of convincing people that he is ready for the top slot, the debate definitely helped him."

If true, then Obama wins on points. I still think there's no clear winner.

Comments

[jbru.livejournal.com]

I'm pretty much in agreement, but I think we're in the minority. Did you watch the debate on PBS or on a network?

Interestingly, the polls seem to show Obama doing much better. CNN, for example, says, "Fifty-one percent of those polled thought Obama did the better job in Friday night's debate, while 38 percent said John McCain did better."

[barondave.livejournal.com]

I scored Obama at an A- and McCain as a solid B. Most commentators agree with my rough opinion: Obama did a little better, and since he's leading in the race this is a minor but important victory.

Interestingly, what I'm not seeing very much of as yet, is Fact Checking. Several times, Obama chided McCain, "that simply isn't true, John." Well, was it or wasn't it? Do we have Kissinger on tape saying he would meet with Iranians without precondition? McCain was swinging wildly for the sphincter conservatives on that one. Not only was he wrong on the strategic side -- Obama didn't say he would march into talks arbitrarily or without lower level talks -- but McCain seemed desperate and wrong. Being wrong, of course, plays to the "base".

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

I watched the debate on MSNBC, but didn't watch the pre-debate garbage or the inevitable stupid "talking heads" discussion afterward, where the Republican and Democrat talking heads no doubt each spouted the proper party line and nothing else. Checked CNN -- yep they were doing the same thing: talking to a panel of three each Republican and Democratic blowhards, all of whom were saying exactly what you could predict they'd say. Turned that off, too.

[haikujaguar.livejournal.com]

There is no doubt the country agrees with him on almost every policy issue.

Um, what? No. :P

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

That's not my statement, but electoral-vote.com's -- actually, I agree with you. That's false. The country does not agree with Obama on "almost every policy issue." While I do enjoy that site, the owner is (like me) unashamedly liberal in viewpoint. Occasionally (also like me), his bias colors his commentary.

Still, the poll numbers are genuine (and properly linked -- if you go to electoral-vote.com -- to the source material. It's easy enough there to sift opinion from fact.

[haikujaguar.livejournal.com]

I know it wasn't your quote, but it was so egregious I had to say something. :P

[sleigh.livejournal.com]

No problem. I can understand the impulse! :-)

Honestly, I just cut-and-pasted the paragraph from the site; all I was interested in were the poll results, and in 20/20 hindsight, I'd cut out the last half of the quote...

O_O

[ysabetwordsmith.livejournal.com]

>> Many observers have said this election is about Barack Obama. There is no doubt the country agrees with him on almost every policy issue. The key question is do people think he is up to the toughest job in the world. In terms of convincing people that he is ready for the top slot, the debate definitely helped him." <<

So, um ... people would rather have someone going with confidence and experience in a direction they disagree with than someone exploring in a direction they agree with? *headdesk*

[smofbabe.livejournal.com]

Couldn't watch it from here but most reports seem to agree that it was either a tie or slightly for Obama. However, one optimistic result: "Democracy Corps conducted a set of dial and focus groups among 45 undecided voters in St. Louis, Missouri. These voters had an unmistakably Republican tilt, voting for President Bush by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004 and self-identifying as 33 percent Republican and 27 percent Democrat. But playing on his perceived strength of national security and before a friendly audience, McCain could only manage a draw among this group. Of our 45 initial undecided voters, a quarter moved to Obama and a quarter to McCain after the debate with the rest remaining undecided. Moreover, by a 38 to 27 percent margin these voters said that Obama won this debate." More interesting details here: http://www.democracycorps.com/focus/2008/09/first-presidential-debate-obama-makes-important-personal-and-national-security-gains/

[spenceraloysius.livejournal.com]

I'm with the Wall Street Journal analysis (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122265271552084331.html?mod=googlenews_wsj) that it doesn't matter how the debates go, with the economy in a tailspin, people are going to vote for a change. I think that Obama got the benefit of having the economy come up first, when most people would be paying attention, and that is why his poll numbers say that he won.